Introduction The geographic profiling problem is the problem of constructing an estimate for the location of the anchor point of a serial offender from the locations of the offender's crime sites.

We have developed a new mathematical algorithm for the geographic profiling problem based on Bayesian methods that allows us to allow for geographic features that affect crime site selection and for geographic features that affect the choice of an offender's anchor point.

We have implmented this new mathematical method in software, and are making the resulting software tool available for download and use.

  • Current software (.zip) Windows, October 2009
  • Instructions for the use of the software tool (.pdf)
  • Report to NIJ (.pdf) that describes the mathematics and the software
  • Source Code and documentation (.zip)

Related Papers

  • M. O'Leary, The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 6, pp. 253-265 (2009) Preprint (.pdf) (Journal)

Related Presentations

  • Mathematical models for geographic profiling problem, UCLA Applied Mathematics Colloquium, November 2009 (.pdf)
  • A new software tool for geographic profiling problem, The Tenth Crime Mapping Conference, New Orleans LA, August 2009 (.pdf)
  • A new software tool for geographic profiling, The NIJ Conference, Arlington VA, June 2009 (.pdf)
  • Mathematical models for the geographic profiling problem, Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy, George Mason University, March 2009 (.pdf)
  • Mathematical models for the geographic profiling problem, Georgetown University Mathematics Department Colloquium, March 2009 (.pdf)
  • Determining the Optimal Search Area for a Serial Criminal, Joint Mathematics Meetings, Washington DC, January 2009 (.pdf)
  • Advances in Geographic Profiling 31st Applied Geography Conference, Wilmington DE, October 2008 (.pdf)
  • Determining the Optimal Search Area for a Serial Criminal INFORMS National Meeting, Washington DC, October 2008 (.pdf)
  • Using Mathematics to Catch Criminal Stevenson University Kappa Mu Epsilon Meeting, September 2008 (.pdf)
  • The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, The NIJ Conference, Arlington VA, July 2008 (.pdf)
  • The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, Spring Meeting, Geospatial Technology Working Group, New Orleans, April 2008. (.pdf)
  • The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, Center for Army Analysis, Fort Belvoir, April 2008 (.pdf)
  • The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, Baltimore County Police Department, Towson MD, June 2007 (.pdf)
  • The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, Ninth Crime Mapping Research Conference, Pittsburgh PA, March 28-31 2007 (.pdf) (Conference)
  • The Mathematics of Geographic Profiling, Crime Hot Spots: Behavioral, Computational and Mathematical Models, Institute for Pure and Applied Mathematics (IPAM), UCLA, January 29 - February 2, 2007. (.pdf) (Conference)
  • A New Mathematical Technique for Geographic Profiling, The NIJ Conference, Washington D.C., July 2006. (.odp) (.pdf)
  • Determining the Optimal Search Area for a Serial Criminal, Modeling and Simulation Technical Working Group, National Institute of Justice, Jersey City, March 2006. (.pdf)
bottom corner